Two Polls Indicate Donald Trump is Either Leading or Tied in Key Swing States

On Saturday, two pollsters, InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar, released several swing state polls, and the results are overwhelmingly positive for former President Donald Trump.

Poll Results Summary:

Trafalgar Polls:

• Pennsylvania: Trump 47%, Harris 45% — Trump +2
• Michigan: Trump 47%, Harris 47% — tied
• Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Harris 46% — Trump +1

These Trafalgar polls were conducted with over 1,080 likely voters from August 28 to 30, with a margin of error of 2.8%.

InsiderAdvantage Polls:

• Arizona: Trump 49%, Harris 48% — Trump +1
• Nevada: Trump 48%, Harris 47% — Trump +1
• North Carolina: Trump 49%, Harris 48% — Trump +1
• Georgia: Trump 48%, Harris 48% — tied

These InsiderAdvantage polls surveyed 800 likely voters from August 29 to 31, with a margin of error of 3.5%.

Additionally, another poll from Georgia indicates Trump leading by two points, 44% to 42%. This poll was taken on August 28 among 699 likely voters.

Significance of These Polls:

What makes these poll results noteworthy is their timing. All of these polls were conducted after Kamala Harris’s convention, which was criticized for lacking substance, following six weeks of extensive corporate media coverage, and after Harris’s poorly-received interview on CNN last Thursday.

According to the RealClearPolitics average of these state polls, Trump is performing better than the average in every case. While the difference might be just a point or two, the consistency of Trump’s lead across two different pollsters, at a time when Harris should be experiencing a post-convention boost, is significant.

It's also worth considering what will happen as Harris’s CNN interview continues to influence public opinion.

Unless something unexpected occurs, it appears Harris peaked following the convention, which did not result in a substantial bounce for her. With the initial surge of excitement from announcements and conventions fading, the real campaign is set to begin on Tuesday. The question then becomes: will Harris continue to avoid the media or take another chance and risk another setback? Her performance under pressure has been shaky, and with the debate looming the following week, any new controversy could pose a challenge.

At this point, based on current state and national polls, Trump is polling better than he did in both 2016, when he won, and in 2020, where it’s claimed he narrowly lost by around 45,000 votes across three states.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, I'd rather be in Trump’s position than Harris’s.

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