President Donald Trump is reinforcing his commitment to enforcing U.S. border laws, threatening substantial tariffs if Mexico doesn’t cooperate.
“I’m going to inform [Mexico’s president] on day one or sooner that if they don’t stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country, I’m going to immediately impose a 25 percent tariff on everything they send into the United States of America,” Trump announced during a rally in Raleigh, N.C., on Monday.
Trump intensified his warning on tariffs, stating, “If that doesn’t work, I’ll make it 50 percent, and if that doesn’t work, I’ll make it 75. Then I’ll make it 100.” His stance reflects frustration with Mexico's handling of migrants held in its southern regions, a strategy that limits border chaos to prevent bolstering Trump’s 2024 campaign.
Trump previously used tariff threats in 2019, compelling Mexico to accept migration controls, including the Migrant Protection Protocols, which deterred migrants by restricting their ability to find U.S. employment. Mexico, reliant on trade with the U.S. and wary of cartel-funded migration networks, agreed to the curbs. However, Democrats rescinded these policies after President Biden appointed Alejandro Mayorkas, whose pro-migration policies have since permitted millions of migrants entry.
Establishment media expressed alarm over Trump’s tariff threats, citing economic fallout. *The Washington Post* reported that a trade war could spike prices, with UBS projecting a potential 10 percent drop in the stock market and the Peterson Institute estimating an additional $2,600 annual cost per household. Critics voiced similar concerns in 2019, though Trump’s tariffs then achieved their goal.
Under Biden, however, Mayorkas’ policies led to complex negotiations with Mexico, now a key ally in managing migrant flows to the U.S. These policies boosted the U.S. labor force and increased housing and retail demand but weakened Biden’s bargaining power with Mexico on broader issues, including cartel-related drug trafficking.
If Trump regains office, Bensman predicts Mexico might expedite migrant flows discreetly before January’s inauguration, using “Ant Operations” like caravans, bus convoys, and trains to avoid direct responsibility. Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is pragmatic and may reinstate restrictions if the national interest aligns with avoiding Trump’s tariffs.
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