Fact-Checking Trump’s Fentanyl Justification for Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China
President Donald Trump has repeatedly cited fentanyl trafficking as a reason for imposing and then reconsidering tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. He argues these countries are responsible for the influx of the deadly opioid into the U.S.
During his congressional address on Tuesday, Trump claimed that Canada and Mexico “have allowed fentanyl to come into our country at levels never seen before.” He added, “We have very large deficits with both of them. But more importantly, they have allowed fentanyl to come into our country, killing hundreds of thousands of citizens—many of them young and beautiful—destroying families. Nobody has ever seen anything like it.”
Last month, Trump postponed tariffs on Canada and Mexico after they pledged to help curb fentanyl trafficking. However, this week he reinstated a 25% tariff on nearly all imports from those countries while also doubling tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 20%, claiming their efforts were insufficient.
Yet, just days later, Trump reversed course again, pausing most tariffs on Mexico for another month. He explained the decision in a social media post, stating: “We are working hard, together, on the Border—both in terms of stopping Illegal Aliens from entering the United States and stopping Fentanyl.” He later applied a similar delay to Canadian tariffs.
The Fentanyl-Tariff Connection: Does It Hold Up?
Trump has long linked trade policy to drug interdiction, vowing to impose tariffs until fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration are brought under control. However, data suggests a more nuanced reality.
While Trump has blamed both Canada and Mexico, fentanyl smuggling overwhelmingly occurs through the southern border. In fiscal year 2024, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) seized:
- 21,000+ pounds of fentanyl at the southern border
- Just 43 pounds at the northern border
Even small amounts of fentanyl can be lethal, but Canada’s role in trafficking is minimal compared to Mexico.
China’s involvement is more complex. Beijing has denied permitting fentanyl production but has historically been a major supplier. In the past, Chinese manufacturers shipped large quantities of fentanyl directly to the U.S., often through the Postal Service. A 2019 U.S.-China agreement significantly reduced those direct shipments, but Chinese firms still produce precursor chemicals that are purchased by Mexican cartels to synthesize fentanyl.
Despite Trump’s rhetoric, government data indicates that over 86% of fentanyl traffickers sentenced in 2023 were U.S. citizens—not foreign smugglers.
How Have Canada, Mexico, and China Responded?
All three nations have criticized Trump’s tariffs and defended their anti-fentanyl efforts.
- Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the tariffs “unjustified,” noting that Canada accounts for less than 1% of fentanyl seizures at the U.S. border. In retaliation, Canada imposed 25% tariffs on $155 billion in American goods.
- Mexico: President Claudia Sheinbaum also announced 25% counter-tariffs, saying Mexico had increased cartel crackdowns and that Trump’s move was unjustified.
- China: Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian accused Trump of using fentanyl as a “pretext” for economic pressure, warning that Beijing would escalate trade measures in response. China imposed tariffs on key U.S. agricultural imports, with its U.S. embassy declaring: “If war is what the U.S. wants—be it a tariff war or any other war—we’re ready to fight till the end.”
Are U.S. Fentanyl Deaths Declining?
Overdose deaths in the U.S. peaked in 2022–2023, exceeding 111,000 fatalities per year—mostly due to fentanyl. However, according to the CDC, fentanyl-related deaths have since declined by nearly 24%.
While the fentanyl crisis remains a major concern, Trump’s claims that Canada and Mexico are primary sources of the problem—and that tariffs are an effective solution—are not strongly supported by the data.
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prescription drugs, Donald Trump, Mexico, Canada, China, tariffs, imports