Recent national head-to-head polls show Harris in the lead, though the results in key battleground states are more varied.
After Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, recent polls show her pulling ahead of Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race.
In recent national head-to-head polls, SurveyUSA reports Harris leading Trump by three points, 48%-45%. Morning Consult has Harris up by four points, 48%-44%. YouGov and News show a narrow one-point lead for Harris at 50%-49%. The University of Massachusetts Amherst poll indicates Harris ahead by three points, 46%-43%. These results largely fall within the margin of error.
Tatishe Nteta, provost professor of political science and director of the UMass Amherst poll, highlighted a significant shift: a seven-point swing in favor of Harris since January, when Trump led Joe Biden by four points.
"For weeks after the first presidential debate in June," Nteta noted, "Democratic donors, prominent Democratic officials, and the media argued that President Joe Biden faced steep odds against former President Donald Trump and urged Biden to step down."
"In the wake of Biden's historic decision to forgo re-election, it appears his critics were correct. Vice-President Kamala Harris has emerged as the frontrunner in the race for the White House.
"With three months remaining, the Harris campaign and the Democratic party must feel optimistic about their chances to retain control of the White House and potentially hand former President Trump a second consecutive defeat in his quest to return to Pennsylvania Avenue."
Harris also received positive news from the Hill, as their "ultimate hub for polls, predictions, and election results" showed her with a positive favorability rating for the first time, following a significant climb since mid-July when Biden stepped down.
As expected, August polls in the seven key battleground states presented a more mixed picture.
In polls concluding in August, Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, found Harris leading by one point in Georgia but trailing by two points in Arizona and one point in Pennsylvania. Trafalgar/Insider Advantage, a right-leaning firm, showed Trump ahead by two points in Georgia.
According to battleground averages maintained by the polling site FiveThirtyEight, Trump led Harris by two points in Arizona and one point in Georgia, while Harris was ahead by two points in Michigan, one point in Pennsylvania, and one and a half points in Wisconsin."
North Carolina polls collected by FiveThirtyEight, though not averaged, showed Trump with a shrinking lead, decreasing from nine points in mid-July to two points in early August.
There was also positive news for Harris in the solidly Democratic state of New York, where Trump had shown progress while Biden led the blue ticket. With Harris as the candidate, a Siena College poll found her ahead by 14 points, 53%-39%.
On Monday, Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and a prominent voice among polling analysts, stated that Harris “now has a real lead in national polls – about two points – and has also been ahead in most recent polls of” Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Silver also mentioned that concerns about economic conditions, highlighted by Wall Street sell-offs and reports of recession fears, shouldn't be dismissed. “But the momentum in the polls outweighs it for now,” he noted.
This article was amended on 6 August 2024 to clarify the FiveThirtyEight poll findings in Georgia.
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