Kamala Harris's rise to the top of the
Democratic ticket and her lead in many national opinion polls appear to have significantly boosted economic confidence among Democrats.
According to the University of Michigan’s survey of consumer sentiment, overall consumer sentiment slightly increased in August, up by 2.3 percent compared to July. This rise was largely driven by improved expectations among Democrats regarding their personal financial situation, the broader economy's near-term prospects, and the economy's long-term direction.
In August, the Democratic expectations index surged by 15 percent, likely influenced by Harris’s growing campaign momentum. In contrast, the Republican expectations index dropped by 4.8 percent, while among independents, it rose by three percent. Overall, the expectations measure for all consumers increased by 4.7 percent.
There were also political divides in views of current economic conditions. The index for all consumers fell by 2.2 percent. Democratic perceptions of current conditions showed a slight improvement, while Republican views on the current state of the economy declined sharply by nearly 21 percent. For independents, the current conditions index went up by 5.1 percent.
“Sentiment this month reflects a slight rise among Independents, with Democrats and Republicans nearly balancing each other out. Democrats saw a significant 10% increase in sentiment, while Republicans experienced an equally sized decline. These shifts resulted from a major change in election expectations this month, with Harris emerging as the Democratic presidential candidate,” said Joanne Hsu, the survey director.
The economy remains the top issue for many voters, a factor that has generally favored Donald Trump throughout the election cycle. However, recent polls suggest Harris is gaining ground on Trump regarding economic issues. One Financial Times poll even showed her slightly ahead of Trump, although these results have not been widely corroborated. An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted in August found Trump leading by nine points on the economy and inflation.
More positive economic views could benefit Harris. According to the ABC News poll, she currently leads 61 percent to 33 percent among those who view the economy negatively. Among those who have a positive outlook on the economy, Harris leads Trump by a margin of 89 percent to 8 percent
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