Nolte — Poll: Donald Trump +5 in Battleground States, +3 Nationally

 According to the latest polling from Democracy Institute, former President Donald Trump holds a three-point national lead over incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris and a five-point lead in the ten key battleground states that will be crucial for the 2024 presidential election.

“Donald Trump appears to be gaining serious momentum in 10 key battleground states,” reports Daily Express US, which commissioned the poll. “Data from the Democracy Institute shows the Republican presidential hopeful is favored by a five-percentage-point lead over Kamala Harris – at 50 percent to 45 percent.”

The battleground poll was conducted on August 28 and 29, surveying 1,000 likely voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The national poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters during the same period.

The timing of the poll is notable. Only half of the survey was conducted after Kamala Harris’s controversial CNN interview, and her recent criticism of 13 Gold Star families is not reflected in these results.

While this poll is somewhat of an outlier, it aligns closely with other recent data. Rasmussen reports Trump leading by two points nationally, and Fox News has Trump up by one. According to the RealClearPolitics average poll of national polls, Kamala Harris holds a 1.9-point lead, significantly lower than Hillary Clinton's 3.9-point lead on this date in 2016 and Joe Biden’s 7-point lead on this date in 2020.

In battleground states, the RealClearPolitics average shows Harris with a slim 0.2-point lead, compared to the Democracy Institute poll’s five-point advantage for Trump. Notably, the Democracy Institute poll includes Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia—states not covered in the RealClear average. Given Harris’s stronger performance in these states, one might expect her to have a wider lead.

With around 60 days remaining before the election, Kamala Harris is visiting New Hampshire today, and her running mate,
Tim Walz, is campaigning in Minnesota. These visits could provide more insight into the candidates’ internal polling and strategic priorities. For comparison, it would be akin to Trump and running mate JD Vance visiting Ohio and Florida.

Tag

Donald Trump,5 in Battleground States,+3  Nationally, Donald Trump, RealClearPolitics , Minnesota,North Carolina, Pennsylvania