How This Ends: A U.S.-South Africa Agreement on Trump’s Terms
A warm spring day on the White House lawn. Smiles, handshakes.
South African soprano Pretty Yende performs the national anthems. A Xhosa praise singer’s voice echoes through the colonnade as the two presidents walk behind him.
President Donald Trump steps aside, allowing his guest to take the lead. The leaders approach the podiums, ready to announce a new bilateral treaty.
The agreement largely meets Trump’s demands. In exchange for favorable trade terms, South Africa repeals the Expropriation Act, the law at the heart of the diplomatic rift. It also establishes “Freedom Zones” near Cape Town and Johannesburg, where foreign companies are exempt from rigid labor laws and the Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policies that have funneled wealth into ruling party networks.
The treaty offers South Africa’s elites a one-year amnesty to repatriate illicit funds hidden in offshore accounts. After that, U.S. financial institutions will freeze and seize assets.
Additionally, South Africa commits to safeguarding farmers and protecting women from all backgrounds, subject to annual U.S. oversight.
On the geopolitical front, South Africa agrees to sever military ties with China and Russia and cut off collaboration with Iran. It also drops its case against Israel at the International Court of Justice.
In return, the U.S. renews South Africa’s membership in the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), supports a South African Olympic bid, and secures billions in private infrastructure investment.
This outcome is within reach—but only if South Africa’s leaders change how they engage with Trump.
How South Africa Can Win Trump’s Favor
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Meetings Alone Won’t Fix This
South Africa is dispatching multiple delegations to Washington, hoping to ease tensions. But no key officials will meet them.Trump won’t. Secretary of State Marco Rubio—who is already boycotting South Africa—won’t. Even Democrats, angered by South Africa’s alignment with Russia over Ukraine, want the U.S. to impose consequences.
The solution? Commit publicly to policy changes before seeking dialogue.
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Stop the Contempt for Trump and Republicans
For years, South African leaders and media have demonized Trump and the GOP. That blind spot is now costing them.President Cyril Ramaphosa dismissed Trump’s concerns as “misinformation.” Even former President Thabo Mbeki expressed confusion over a sudden Republican “radical change.” Meanwhile, political cartoonist Jonathan Shapiro (“Zapiro”) compared Trump and Elon Musk to Nazis.
This kind of rhetoric only alienates potential allies.
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Mineral Wealth Is No Longer a Bargaining Chip
South Africa assumes its gold, platinum, and rare earth minerals give it leverage. Trump’s executive order says otherwise. The country’s true asset is its people—who, under the right conditions, will leave in search of better opportunities abroad.If South Africa wants real influence, it must focus on making life better for its own citizens. A stronger nation at home will command greater respect on the global stage.