Explainer: Why Did Russia Invade Ukraine?
Predictions of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine became a reality in the early hours of February 24, 2022. However, what few foresaw was that, three years later, the conflict would still be raging.
Tensions between the two nations had been escalating for years, culminating in late 2021 when Russia amassed up to 190,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders, according to U.S. intelligence reports. Russian President Vladimir Putin further escalated the situation by recognizing the Russian-backed separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region as "independent republics" and deploying so-called peacekeeping troops into the territories.
What initially appeared to be a crisis with room for diplomatic resolution quickly turned into what Ukraine’s foreign minister described as "the most blatant act of aggression in Europe since World War II." Tens of thousands have died on both sides, and Russia has seized control of some Ukrainian territory.
Experts attribute the roots of the war to a mix of historical tensions, Russia’s long-standing opposition to NATO expansion, and Putin’s personal ambitions.
Historical Context: Ukraine and Russia’s Complex Relationship
Ukraine and Russia share a long, intertwined history dating back over a thousand years. In the 20th century, Ukraine was a crucial republic of the Soviet Union—often called the "breadbasket of Europe" due to its vast agricultural resources—until it declared independence in 1991.
Since then, Russia has closely monitored Ukraine’s political trajectory, while Ukraine has faced internal instability, marked by government corruption and mass protests. A significant turning point came in 2014, when Ukraine’s pro-Russian president was ousted in a popular uprising. Shortly afterward, Russia annexed Crimea under the pretense of protecting ethnic Russians, drawing widespread international condemnation.
At the same time, Russia fueled separatist uprisings in the Donbas region, supporting armed insurgents in Donetsk and Luhansk. This led to a protracted conflict that resulted in more than 14,000 deaths between 2014 and 2021.
How Did the Invasion Unfold?
In late 2021, Russia began deploying troops along Ukraine’s borders, including in Belarus, a close ally. Though the Kremlin was vague about its intentions, tensions spiked. Diplomatic efforts—including talks between Putin and then-U.S. President Joe Biden—failed to prevent escalation.
By early 2022, Russia’s military presence had grown, and despite international warnings, the invasion commenced.
What Does Russia Want?
One of Russia’s primary demands has been preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, the Western military alliance formed to deter Soviet expansion. Although Ukraine was not close to NATO membership at the time, Russia viewed the possibility as a threat.
Beyond NATO, Russia’s invasion reflects a broader expansionist agenda. Putin has repeatedly lamented the fall of the Soviet Union, and some analysts argue that his ambitions include reclaiming former Soviet territories.
William Pomeranz, a senior fellow at the Wilson Center, notes that Putin’s opposition to Ukraine’s sovereignty isn’t based on legal principles but on a "might-makes-right" ideology. "He believes that because Russia is stronger, it can dictate Ukraine’s future," Pomeranz explains.
Putin has also justified the war by claiming historical and cultural ties between Russia and Ukraine, a perspective widely rejected by Ukrainians.
Why Did Russia Invade When It Did?
Experts point to several factors that may have influenced Putin’s timing:
- Russia’s Economic Readiness: By 2022, Russia had accumulated $600 billion in foreign currency reserves and had rebuilt its military.
- Perception of U.S. and Western Weakness: Some argue that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 signaled a lack of resolve, emboldening Putin.
- Internal Factors in Ukraine: Political instability and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s relative inexperience may have made Ukraine seem vulnerable.
How Has the World Responded?
Following the invasion, Western nations imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia, targeting its financial institutions, energy exports, and political elite—including Putin himself. The U.S., U.K., and EU have committed over $430 billion in aid to Ukraine.
Despite these efforts, Russia’s economy has remained resilient, with the International Monetary Fund estimating 3.8% GDP growth in 2024, though a slowdown is expected in 2025.
Three Years Later: Where Does the War Stand?
As of early 2025, the war continues with no clear resolution in sight. Ukraine has mounted counteroffensives, including a surprise attack in Russia’s Kursk region in August 2024. However, Russia has also solidified its hold on four annexed Ukrainian territories—Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia—while demanding official recognition of its control.
The human cost has been staggering. By February 2025, over 90,000 Russian soldiers and 65,000 Ukrainian troops had died. The United Nations estimates more than 12,300 Ukrainian civilians, including hundreds of children, have lost their lives.
The Trump Factor: How U.S. Policy Is Shifting
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 has introduced uncertainty regarding U.S. support for Ukraine. While Trump has criticized Western aid levels, he has also promised to negotiate a swift end to the war.
Recent reports indicate that American and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia in February 2025 to discuss a peace process—without Ukrainian representatives. This exclusion sparked outrage in Kyiv, with Zelenskyy insisting that "no one should decide Ukraine’s fate behind our backs."
Meanwhile, Trump has suggested tying further U.S. aid to Ukraine’s willingness to grant the U.S. access to its rare earth minerals, a move seen as transactional rather than strategic support.
What’s Next?
With no immediate resolution in sight, the war remains one of the most significant geopolitical crises of the 21st century. Ukraine continues to push for more Western aid and security guarantees, while Russia remains steadfast in its territorial demands.
As diplomatic efforts unfold, the key question remains: will there be a negotiated settlement, or will the war grind on indefinitely?