The outcome of the presidential election might hinge on a single state: Pennsylvania. It is emerging as the most challenging battleground for Vice President Kamala Harris.
“It’s going to be the toughest swing state,” said J.J. Abbott, a Democratic strategist in Pennsylvania involved in efforts to support Harris. “Among the three blue-wall states, it’s the most diverse in terms of the regions a candidate must win.”
Another Democratic operative described the race as a potential “nail-biter.”
Both Democrats and Republicans have heavily invested in Pennsylvania, surpassing other battleground states in ad spending. Polling shows a tighter race compared to previous cycles, with Trump performing better than predicted in both 2016 and 2020.
Despite these challenges, Democrats are optimistic. They point to recent defeats of MAGA-aligned candidates and a potential pool of voters who supported Nikki Haley in the Republican primary but may be persuadable. The Harris campaign believes its organization, with 350 staffers and 36 offices across the state, gives it an edge over Trump’s efforts.
Harris has made frequent visits to Pennsylvania, and her campaign strategy includes not just focusing on Democratic strongholds like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, but also reaching out to more rural and Republican areas.
The Trump campaign also prioritizes Pennsylvania, though its in-state operations are less extensive than Harris’s. Trump’s strategy includes promoting mail-in voting, training volunteers, and emphasizing Harris's positions on key issues such as fracking and immigration to define her negatively.
As the election approaches, Pennsylvania remains a crucial and closely watched battleground.
“Her previous stance on fracking is something she cannot escape,” said Tim Murtaugh, a senior Trump campaign adviser, referring to Harris’s past support for a federal ban on fracking. “Pennsylvania voters will be well aware of it.”
In 2019, Harris supported a federal fracking ban, but in a recent CNN interview, she clarified that she would not pursue such a ban as president. She attributed this change to the clean energy progress made under the Biden administration without such a ban.
Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) noted, “Fracking is a significant issue in Pennsylvania. I was encouraged when her campaign clarified that she would not ban fracking, as this aligns with the consensus position in the state.”
Harris has also addressed another key issue by opposing Nippon Steel’s bid to acquire Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel, aligning herself with Biden, Trump, and Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) in advocating for keeping the company American-owned. This stance reflects concerns from steelworkers and some in western Pennsylvania about the potential economic impact of the acquisition.
J.J. Abbott, a Democratic strategist, praised Harris’s approach to addressing populist concerns in the state. He observed parallels between her campaign strategy and the targeted efforts of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in the 2022 election, where they made significant inroads in pro-Trump and rural areas.
Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have actively campaigned in areas like Beaver County, where Trump won by 18 points in 2020. Their campaign efforts, including multiple stops during a recent bus tour, have drawn attention from both Democrats and Republicans.
While some Trump allies viewed Harris’s stops in Beaver County as a routine campaign move, they expressed concern that her choice of Walz as a running mate could be a missed opportunity. Allegheny County GOP chairman Sam DeMarco was relieved that Harris did not choose Shapiro, believing that Shapiro’s selection could have solidified Pennsylvania for the Democrats.
Shapiro himself has publicly supported Walz’s selection and indicated potential reservations about joining the ticket. Casey noted that either Shapiro or Walz would have been strong choices, but he believes most voters will focus on the presidential candidate rather than the vice presidential pick.
Some Republicans are calling for a sharper focus from Trump on the issues they believe will be pivotal in winning Pennsylvania. State Rep. Josh Kail suggested that if Trump can maintain focus on key issues and effectively critique Harris, he could outperform her in the state. However, he acknowledged that this remains a significant challenge.
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